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Your Bitcoin market cycle checklist.
A chart is a starting point. Use these five checks to understand what it measures, what it leaves out, and what you will review next.
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Open the public Score. Record its data date, the reading and the band. If the data is stale or an input is missing, write that down before drawing a conclusion.
A rising price today does not make yesterday’s on-chain data current.
On the Score page, multiply each available normalized reading by its published weight. Add the products, then divide by the weight actually used. A missing reading is excluded from both sums.
Practice: readings of 40 and 60, with weights 20 and 10, give (40 × 20 + 60 × 10) ÷ 30 = 46.7. This is a toy example, not today’s Score.
Read the six band definitions on the Score page. The band summarizes these inputs; it does not establish the date or price of the next top or bottom. Fear & Greed has zero weight.
Write: “This reading describes ____. It cannot tell me ____.”
Open the historical record. Choose one accumulation crossing and one exit crossing. Compare their direction with the subsequent return at the same horizon. These are historical model calculations, not live trades.
A positive return after an exit signal went against that signal. Count direction and eligible observations consistently.
On paper, finish: “On ____ I will review ____. If the data is missing, I will ____. If my financial circumstances change, I will ____.” Keep balances and account details private.
Completing a checklist does not require a trade. Pausing or choosing no crypto exposure remains an option.
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