Home › Indicators

Bitcoin cycle indicators, live

Last updated Loading source date · Bitcoin Loading

—

The LiftOffr Score · all nine, weighted

The composite these nine feed into. Full gauge and history at /cycle.

Nine indicators, each normalised to 0-100, each weighted by how much it has actually helped at past cycle turns. High readings mean late cycle. Low readings mean early. Every page below carries the live number, what the indicator read at every cycle top and bottom since 2013, and a section on where it has been wrong. Those sections are the point — an indicator page that only lists the times it worked is an advertisement, not a reference.

All nine, right now

RHODL Ratio

—

weight 20% · Realised HODL Ratio

Puell Multiple

—

weight 20% · miner revenue multiple

Trolololo trend line

—

weight 15% · a.k.a. the logarithmic regression band or rainbow chart

MVRV Z-Score

—

weight 15% · market value to realised value

Pi Cycle Top Indicator

—

weight 10% · 111DMA / 350DMA×2 cross

2-Year MA Multiplier

—

weight 5% · 2YMA / 2-year moving average multiplier

Reserve Risk

—

weight 5% · HODL bank / opportunity cost

Woobull Top Cap Ratio

—

weight 5% · top cap vs price

RUPL / NUPL

—

weight 5% · net unrealised profit and loss

Why nine and not one

Every indicator here has a failure mode, and the failures do not overlap. Pi Cycle is a binary that has to fire on the exact week. MVRV's extremes shrink every cycle. Puell breaks across a halving. The rainbow band gets refitted as new data arrives. Reserve Risk has been distorted by custodial flows since 2024.

Weighting them together does not remove those problems — it stops any single one of them from making the whole decision. That is the entire argument for a composite, and it is why the "where it has been wrong" section exists on every page here.

Read the long-form explainers

The pages above carry the live number. These are the write-ups — how each indicator is built, what it read at past turns, and where it has failed. Four of them cover signals that feed the Score without having a page of their own here.

How to identify a Bitcoin cycle topThe nine-indicator weighted Score — start here. CBBI explainedThe composite these nine readings are derived from. Pi Cycle TopThe MA cross — and the 2025 top it did not fire on. MVRV RatioUnrealised profit across the supply, and its shrinking peaks. Puell MultipleMiner revenue as a cycle clock, and what halvings do to it. Rainbow ChartEvery colour band, and why the curve keeps moving down. 2-Year MA MultiplierThe long-term mean-reversion band. Fear & Greed IndexSentiment as a confirmation signal, not a trigger. Google TrendsRetail search interest, and why it now lags.

Every LiftOffr write-up is indexed at /blog →

These indicators are why I buy where I buy.

My Bear Market Buy Plan is the nine-tier ladder built on top of them — the exact levels, what has to be true at each one, and a timestamped receipt every time a tier fires. $29 once.

Get my plan — $29, once →

Not buying today? The Score, the daily brief and the Discord are free →

Questions

Which Bitcoin cycle indicator is the most accurate?

None of them alone. Pi Cycle landed within days of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops and then did not fire at the 2025 top. MVRV's peak reading has fallen every cycle. The honest answer is that indicators disagree at the turns, which is why LiftOffr weights nine into one score instead of picking a favourite.

What are these numbers?

Each indicator is normalised to a 0-100 scale where high means late-cycle and low means early-cycle. They are derived from the public CBBI dataset and updated daily.

What does the LiftOffr Score add?

It weights the nine components by how much each one has actually helped at cycle turns — RHODL and Puell carry 20% each, Pi Cycle 10%, the slower ones 5%. The full weighting and the live number are at liftoffr.com/cycle.

Is this financial advice?

No. These are measurements of public on-chain and price data, published as education. Nothing here tells you what to buy or sell.

Read this first. Everything on this page is educational market information, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I am not a registered investment adviser. Indicator readings are historical measurements, not predictions — every one of them has been wrong before, which is why each page here has a section saying exactly how. Bitcoin can fall further than you expect and stay there longer than you expect. Do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.