The claim isn't "trust us." The claim is: here's what CBBI, Pi Cycle, MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, and 4 other on-chain signals read at the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 peaks — and here's what that means for reading the next one.
Bitcoin's first major parabolic cycle. Most modern on-chain tools use 2013 data retroactively — readings are reconstructed, not real-time. The cycle featured two peaks (April and November), with November being the final top.
| Indicator | Top Signal Threshold | Reading at Top | Notes | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CBBI ≥ 85 = top territory |
~96 | Retroactively calculated composite | ✓ Fired | |
Pi Cycle Top 111-MA crosses 2× 350-MA |
Fired | Cross occurred near the cycle peak | ✓ Fired | |
MVRV Z-Score ≥ 7 = exit zone |
~9–10 | Most elevated reading in BTC history | ✓ Fired | |
Puell Multiple ≥ 4 = miners overpaid |
~10–12 | Extreme miner profitability at early-stage network | ✓ Fired | |
Rainbow Chart Red / dark-red band |
Red zone | Deep red territory at peak | ✓ Fired | |
2Y MA Multiplier ≥ 5× the 2-year MA |
~10–12× | Parabolic extension above long-term mean | ✓ Fired | |
Fear & Greed Index ≥ 90 = extreme greed |
N/A | Index not tracked in 2013 | — N/A | |
Google Trends ≥ 80 = peak retail interest |
~65–75 | Search volume high but smaller total internet base | ~ Partial |
The first mainstream Bitcoin cycle. Pi Cycle fired on December 17, 2017 — the exact day of the top. MVRV and Puell reached historic extremes. Google Trends hit 100 (peak search interest) in the same week.
| Indicator | Top Signal Threshold | Reading at Top | Notes | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CBBI ≥ 85 = top territory |
~97 | Near-maximum composite reading | ✓ Fired | |
Pi Cycle Top 111-MA crosses 2× 350-MA |
Fired Dec 17 | Called the exact day of the cycle top | ✓ Exact | |
MVRV Z-Score ≥ 7 = exit zone |
~8–9 | Well into extreme overvaluation territory | ✓ Fired | |
Puell Multiple ≥ 4 = miners overpaid |
~8–10 | Miners generating outsized revenue vs. annual average | ✓ Fired | |
Rainbow Chart Red / dark-red band |
Red zone | Maximum bubble territory band reached | ✓ Fired | |
2Y MA Multiplier ≥ 5× the 2-year MA |
~5–6× | At or above the 5× signal line | ✓ Fired | |
Fear & Greed Index ≥ 90 = extreme greed |
~95 | Extreme greed throughout December 2017 | ✓ Fired | |
Google Trends ≥ 80 = peak retail interest |
~100 | All-time peak search interest for "bitcoin" in Dec 2017 | ✓ Fired |
The 2021 cycle had two distinct tops — one on-chain (April) and one price-based (November). Pi Cycle fired April 12, two days before the April peak, then never fired again before the November top. This is why we use 8 indicators in confluence: no single signal had the full picture.
| Indicator | Top Signal Threshold | April 14 reading | November 10 reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CBBI ≥ 85 = top territory |
~95 Deep top territory |
~88 Above threshold but lower |
✓ Both peaks | |
Pi Cycle Top 111-MA crosses 2× 350-MA |
Fired Apr 12 2 days before April peak |
Did not fire MAs did not re-cross |
⚠ Early (April) | |
MVRV Z-Score ≥ 7 = exit zone |
~7.5–8 Well into exit territory |
~5.5 Above threshold, lower intensity |
✓ April fired | |
Puell Multiple ≥ 4 = miners overpaid |
~5–6 Above top signal threshold |
~3–3.5 Below top threshold |
⚠ April only | |
Rainbow Chart Red / dark-red band |
Dark orange / red Near maximum bubble band |
Orange band Elevated but below red |
⚠ Partial | |
2Y MA Multiplier ≥ 5× the 2-year MA |
~3.5× Below the 5× signal level |
~3.5× Did not reach 5× this cycle |
✗ Did not fire | |
Fear & Greed Index ≥ 90 = extreme greed |
~90 Extreme greed at April peak |
~75–80 High, but not extreme greed |
⚠ April fired | |
Google Trends ≥ 80 = peak retail interest |
~75–85 High but not peak 2017 level |
~90–100 Highest searches of 2021 cycle |
✓ November fired |
The "apathy top." Bitcoin made a new all-time high at $124,824, but with notably less retail mania than prior cycles — Fear & Greed only hit 71 (Greed, not Extreme Greed) at the price peak, and Pi Cycle failed to cross for the first time in three documented cycles. Yet composite confluence still fired: CBBI hit 0.94, and MVRV, Puell, NUPL, RHODL, 2-Year MA, and Reserve Risk all entered top territory. The lesson: institutional-driven cycles can top without retail euphoria — but on-chain signals still show up.
| Indicator | Top Signal Threshold | Reading at Oct 6, 2025 peak | Notes | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CBBI ≥ 85 = top territory |
~94 | Peaked Jul 17 (0.94), 0.91 at the BTC price top | ✓ Fired | |
Pi Cycle Top 111-MA crosses 2× 350-MA |
Did not fire | Peaked at 83% of cross threshold; first miss since 2013 | ✗ Missed | |
MVRV Z-Score ≥ 7 = exit zone |
Top zone | CBBI-normalized 0.92; below 2017/2021 magnitude but in zone | ✓ Fired | |
Puell Multiple ≥ 4 = miners overpaid |
Top zone | CBBI-normalized 0.95; halving dynamics suppressed raw multiple | ✓ Fired | |
Rainbow Chart Red / dark-red band |
Orange band | CBBI-normalized 0.86; elevated but below maximum bubble | ⚠ Partial | |
2Y MA Multiplier ≥ 5× the 2-year MA |
Top zone | CBBI-normalized 0.96; raw multiple lower than prior cycles | ✓ Fired | |
Fear & Greed Index ≥ 90 = extreme greed |
71 | "Greed" — never Extreme at price peak (cycle high: 84 in Jan) | ✗ Missed | |
Google Trends ≥ 80 = peak retail interest |
Below 2021 | Retail mania never returned — institutional flows drove the cycle | ✗ Missed |
Pi Cycle fired on April 12, 2021 — two days before the on-chain top at $64,863. If you exited there, you avoided the 55% drawdown to $29k. But if you waited for "confirmation," BTC recovered to $69,044 in November.
Pi Cycle did not fire again in November 2021. MVRV didn't hit its 2017 extremes. Puell Multiple stayed below 4. But Google Trends hit its cycle high and CBBI stayed above 85 — together, they signaled the November peak wasn't as overextended as April on-chain, even if price was higher.
The 2025 cycle then broke a different mold: BTC ran to $124,824 with no Pi Cycle cross, Fear & Greed never hitting Extreme Greed, and Google Trends well below 2021 levels. A trader watching any of those three alone would have missed the top entirely. But the composite — CBBI 0.94, MVRV/Puell/NUPL/2YMA all in top zone — still flagged the cycle peak.
The lesson, twice confirmed: a single-indicator strategy will miss at least one cycle top per decade. Confluence — multiple signals agreeing — is the only framework that handled the 2021 dual-peak, the 2025 apathy top, and every cycle before. That's the system LiftOffr tracks every day.
| Indicator | 2013 | 2017 | 2021 (April) | 2021 (November) | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBBI | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Pi Cycle Top | ✓ | ✓ Exact | ⚠ 2 days early | ✗ Missed | ✗ Missed |
| MVRV Z-Score | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ⚠ Partial | ✓ |
| Puell Multiple | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ Below threshold | ✓ |
| Rainbow Chart | ✓ | ✓ | ⚠ Partial | ⚠ Partial | ⚠ Partial |
| 2Y MA Multiplier | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ Did not reach 5× | ✗ Did not reach 5× | ✓ Top zone |
| Fear & Greed | — N/A | ✓ | ✓ | ⚠ Partial | ✗ Only 71 |
| Google Trends | ⚠ Partial | ✓ | ⚠ Partial | ✓ | ✗ Below 2021 |
The daily brief tells you what each indicator is reading right now, what the confluence verdict is, and what it means for your position — in 3 minutes at 8am MT.
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