Deep dives on the indicators behind Bitcoin cycle timing — what each one measures, where it has been right, and where it has been wrong.
The complete guide to timing a Bitcoin cycle exit — why single indicators fail, how confluence signals work together, and the staged profit-taking framework LiftOffr uses to read all nine weighted components at once. Start here.
Understand the on-chain metric that predicts Bitcoin cycle peaks. Learn when MVRV Z-Score signals overvaluation and how to use it with other indicators. Real thresholds, historical examples, and what each band has meant at past cycle turns.
How the 111-day MA crossing 2× the 350-day MA fired at three of the five cycle peaks since 2013 — missing both November 2021 and October 2025 — and why the April 2021 early fire and the October 2025 no-show are the reason it carries 10% of the Score rather than a veto. The math, the track record, and how LiftOffr uses it in confluence.
CBBI combines ~9 on-chain metrics into a single 0–100 score. Above 85 = top territory. Learn how the composite works, what it read at every cycle peak, and why a blended score beats any single indicator.
The Puell Multiple measures miner revenue vs. its yearly average. Above 4 = historically near a top. Learn the formula, why halvings distort it, and why November 2021 showed what happens when Puell doesn't confirm the top.
The logarithmic regression bands that show whether Bitcoin is in "fire sale" or "maximum bubble" territory. Learn what each color means, how it read at every cycle top, and why it's context — not a trading signal.
When Bitcoin exceeds 5× its 2-year moving average, it has historically been near a cycle top. Learn how this mean reversion tool works, why the signal compresses in larger-cap markets, and how it pairs with MVRV and Puell.
The 0–100 sentiment score built from volatility, momentum, social media, dominance, and Google Trends. Learn the zones, what it read at the 2021 tops, and why it's a lagging temperature gauge — not a leading indicator.
When retail searches for "buy Bitcoin" spike, the cycle is usually close to topping. Learn which search terms to watch, how Trends data read at the 2017 and 2021 peaks, and why it's a confirmatory signal — not a trigger.
A full breakdown of how the nine weighted components read at every cycle peak — including the October 2025 top ($124,824), which the Score did not cleanly get out ahead of: it entered the exit zone three times between November 2024 and October 2025, dropped back out three times, and only left it for good fifteen days after the peak.
Want to use all these indicators together in real-time?
Get the plan — $29 once →One-time payment · no subscription · 30 days to change your mind