Ten times since 2013 the LiftOffr Score has crossed into the exit zone. Every one of those crossings is below with its date, its price, and what Bitcoin did over the following 30, 90 and 180 days — including the 2017 crossing after which BTC rose 149% in a month. Every figure comes from the same 64-row log at /receipts, and every one is recomputable from free public data.
Signal dates and prices: the LiftOffr Score log at /receipts · Indicator readings: cbbi.info, LookIntoBitcoin, Glassnode, alternative.me
This page used to claim “four cycle tops, the composite flagged all four,” with a table underneath that credited three of those four exits to Pi Cycle alone — the single indicator this page exists to argue against — and no row at all for 2025. It also argued that Fear & Greed and Google Trends “missed” the 2025 top. Those two carry zero weight in the Score, so they could not have missed anything it relies on. All of that is rebuilt below from the signal log. Where this page and /indicator-history disagreed on a reading, /indicator-history now governs and the value here is shown as the approximation it always was. Three different 2013 peak prices were also live across the site ($1,150, ~$1,163 and $1,119); one basis is now used everywhere. Cycle peaks and bottoms on this page are intraday highs and lows. Signal prices are CBBI daily closes, because that is the series the Score runs on. The two differ and saying which is which is the difference between a rounding note and a discrepancy.
This is the argument for weighting nine components instead of trusting one, and it is also the clearest example of what a threshold model costs you. The Score crossed into the exit zone on 27 June 2025 at $107,091, BTC peaked at $124,824 on 6 October, and the Score did not leave the exit zone until 21 October — fifteen days after the peak. It was in the right zone. It was not a clean exit.
That's why the Score weights nine indicators instead of trusting one. Every cycle breaks a different signal. The Score is built so that when one component goes quiet, the other eight still carry the number — which is a claim about robustness, not about precision.
Indicator readings at or within one week of each cycle top. Every threshold is independently documented and publicly verifiable.
Two things to hold while you read these. The “confluence at N of 6” counts in the timelines are a legacy heuristic — a hand count of how many of these six indicators were in their own top zones. That is not the LiftOffr Score, which is a weighted average of nine components with published weights and a single 0–100 output. Where the two disagree, the Score is the product and the count is background. And the readings themselves are approximations that vary by data source and by which day you call “the top”; every value here now matches /indicator-history, which is the page that owns them.
This is the record. What it does not tell you is what you will do when the Score next moves — and deciding that in the moment is the expensive part. The $29 plan is the nine levels I have written down for my own position, plus a worksheet that turns your stack size into your own ladder. 30 days to read it; if it isn’t worth $29 I refund it, no form and no reason needed.
See what’s in the plan — $29, once →All ten times the LiftOffr Score crossed into the exit zone, copied from the log at /receipts. The forward columns are what Bitcoin actually did from that price — not what a ladder would have captured, and not adjusted for anything. Green is the model being right about direction. Red is it being wrong.
| Cycle | Crossed into exit | Score | BTC at crossing | +30d | +90d | +180d | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Nov 21, 2013 | 86.0 | $721 | -17.2% | -13.5% | -32.0% | 9 days before the $1,163 top |
| 2017 | Nov 17, 2017 | 85.5 | $7,729 | +149.1% | +30.8% | +7.7% | 30 days before the top, and 60% below it |
| 2021 ① | Jan 03, 2021 | 85.6 | $33,278 | +7.0% | +72.1% | +1.5% | 101 days before the April top |
| 2021 ② | Feb 02, 2021 | 85.0 | $35,596 | +36.2% | +60.8% | +12.3% | 71 days before the April top, 45% below it |
| 2021 ③ | Oct 19, 2021 | 85.2 | $64,291 | -11.7% | -34.3% | -38.2% | 22 days before the $69,044 November top |
| 2021 ④ | Nov 09, 2021 | 85.8 | $67,096 | -28.6% | -34.6% | -49.2% | 1 day before the November top |
| 2024 | Mar 04, 2024 | 85.9 | $68,092 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -13.4% | an exit in the middle of a bull run |
| 2024 | Nov 16, 2024 | 85.0 | $90,568 | +16.9% | +7.6% | +14.5% | 324 days before the $124,824 top |
| 2025 ① | May 08, 2025 | 85.1 | $103,070 | +2.5% | +11.6% | -1.7% | re-entry after the Feb 2025 whipsaw |
| 2025 ② | Jun 27, 2025 | 85.4 | $107,091 | +11.5% | +1.9% | -18.2% | 101 days before the top; still in the zone at the top |
Read the table honestly, because I am not going to summarise it for you flatteringly. Six of the ten crossings were followed by a lower price 180 days later. Four were not. The 2017 crossing was followed by BTC rising 149% in thirty days — anyone who acted on it and did not come back missed the entire blow-off. The November 2024 crossing was followed by six more months of upside. The two 2021 crossings in October and November are the ones that look like the marketing.
There is no “drawdown avoided” column any more. The old one credited three of four exits to a Pi Cycle cross rather than to the Score, quoted a range (51–83%) whose bottom end was silently dropped from the hero, and had no row for 2025 at all. A drawdown-avoided figure also assumes you sold everything at the crossing and never bought back, which is not what the plan does and not what I did.
Every dated signal here is the Score computed over public historical data — a backtest, not a record of trades placed at the time. Past performance does not predict future results. Educational content, not financial advice, and nothing here is personalised to you.
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