The Track Record — LiftOffr | Bitcoin Cycle Top Calls 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025

Case files

What the data showed
at every peak.

Indicator readings at or within one week of each cycle top. Every threshold is independently documented and publicly verifiable.

2013 BTC Peak — $1,150 · Nov 29, 2013

✓ Top called within 2 weeks

Indicator readings at top

MVRV Z-Score 9.6 Top zone ≥7

CBBI Confidence 0.95 Top zone ≥0.85

Pi Cycle Top Crossed Binary signal

Puell Multiple ~8× Top zone ≥4×

Rainbow Band Maximum Bubble Top zone band 9

Signal timeline

Nov 14, 2013MVRV-Z crossed 7.0 → top zone entered

Nov 18, 2013Pi Cycle crossed — confluence at 3/5

Nov 29, 2013BTC peaks at $1,150

Jan 2015BTC bottoms at $152 (−87% from top)

📊

If you sold at the Pi Cycle signal (Nov 18) at ~$900: BTC dropped to $152 by January 2015 — an 83% drawdown avoided. The confluence framework had 3 of 5 indicators in top-zone simultaneously — the threshold for action.

2017 BTC Peak — $19,783 · Dec 17, 2017

✓ Top called within 3 days

Indicator readings at top

MVRV Z-Score 9.7 Top zone ≥7 — cycle high

CBBI Confidence 0.97 Highest ever recorded

Pi Cycle Top Crossed Dec 14 3 days before top

Puell Multiple ~10× Highest ever recorded

Rainbow Band Maximum Bubble Band 9 — top tier

Fear & Greed ~95 Extreme Greed ≥80

Signal timeline

Dec 7, 2017MVRV-Z crossed 7.0 — first top-zone signal

Dec 11, 2017Puell Multiple >4 — confluence at 4/6

Dec 14, 2017Pi Cycle crosses — high confluence active

Dec 17, 2017BTC peaks at $19,783

Dec 2018BTC bottoms at $3,122 (−84% from top)

📊

If you sold at Pi Cycle signal (Dec 14) at ~$17,500: BTC fell to $3,122 by December 2018 — an 82% drawdown avoided. All 6 indicators were simultaneously in top-zone for the first and only time in Bitcoin's history.

2021 ① BTC Peak — $64,863 · Apr 14, 2021

✓ Top called 2 days early

Indicator readings at top

MVRV Z-Score 8.0 Top zone ≥7

CBBI Confidence 0.91 Top zone ≥0.85

Pi Cycle Top Crossed Apr 12 2 days before top

Puell Multiple 3.5× Elevated — below top threshold

Rainbow Band Sell. Seriously, SELL! Band 8 — top zone

Fear & Greed ~77 Extreme Greed zone

Signal timeline

Apr 5, 2021MVRV-Z crossed 7.0 — first top-zone signal

Apr 8, 2021CBBI crosses 0.85 — confluence at 3/6

Apr 12, 2021Pi Cycle crosses — high confluence active

Apr 14, 2021BTC peaks at $64,863

Jul 2021BTC drops to $29,300 (−55% from top)

📊

If you sold at Pi Cycle signal (Apr 12) at ~$60,000: BTC fell to $29,300 by July — a 51% drawdown avoided. Note: Puell only hit 3.5× (below the 4× threshold) — proof that no single indicator fires at every top, which is exactly why we require confluence.

2021 ② BTC Peak — $69,044 · Nov 10, 2021

✓ Top zone flagged — no Pi Cycle cross

Indicator readings at top

MVRV Z-Score 7.5 Top zone ≥7

CBBI Confidence 0.88 Top zone ≥0.85

Pi Cycle Top No cross Did not fire this top

Puell Multiple 2.8× Elevated — below top threshold

Rainbow Band Sell. Seriously, SELL! Band 8 — top zone

Fear & Greed ~76 Extreme Greed zone

Signal timeline

Oct 28, 2021MVRV-Z re-enters top zone above 7.0

Nov 3, 2021CBBI back above 0.85 — confluence at 2/6

Nov 8, 2021Rainbow enters "Sell. Seriously, SELL!" — 3/6

Nov 10, 2021BTC peaks at $69,044

Nov 2022BTC bottoms at $15,742 (−77% from top)

📊

Pi Cycle did not cross at this top — but MVRV-Z, CBBI, and Rainbow were all simultaneously in top-zone, triggering a 3/6 confluence warning. If you reduced exposure at the Nov 8 signal (~$66k): BTC dropped to $15,742 by November 2022 — a 76% drawdown avoided.

Why this matters: The November 2021 top is the best proof that no single indicator is the answer. Pi Cycle didn't fire. Puell was below threshold. But the confluence framework — requiring 3+ indicators simultaneously — still flagged the top within 2 days. This is exactly why we track 8 indicators, not 1.

2025 BTC Peak — $124,824 · Oct 6, 2025

✓ Composite flagged — "the apathy top"

Indicator readings at top

CBBI Confidence 0.91 / 0.94 max Top zone — 0.94 max Jul 17, 2025

Pi Cycle Top No cross First miss since 2013 (83% of threshold)

MVRV Z-Score Top zone CBBI-normalized 0.92

Puell Multiple Top zone CBBI-normalized 0.95

Rainbow Band Orange Elevated — below maximum bubble

Fear & Greed 71 "Greed" — never hit Extreme Greed at peak

Signal timeline

Jan 22, 2025F&G hits 84 (Extreme Greed) — only date in 2025 it reached this zone

Jul 17, 2025CBBI Confidence peaks at 0.94 — maximum confluence reading

Aug 15, 2025Reserve Risk hits 2025 high — late-cycle distribution signal

Oct 6, 2025BTC peaks at $124,824 (CBBI 0.91, F&G 71)

Feb 2026BTC trades at $67,550 (−46% from top, bear phase confirmed)

📊

The 2025 top is the strongest case yet for confluence. Pi Cycle never crossed. Fear & Greed never hit Extreme Greed. Google Trends stayed below 2021 levels. Three of the most-cited "cycle top" indicators all individually failed to flag the top. But the composite framework — CBBI 0.94, MVRV / Puell / NUPL / 2YMA / Reserve Risk all in top zone — caught the cycle peak weeks before the October ATH.

Why this matters: Institutional-driven cycles can top without retail euphoria. Anyone using only price-based signals (Pi Cycle) or pure sentiment (F&G ≥ 90) would have missed this top entirely. The 8-indicator confluence framework is what made the difference — and it's the same system tracked every day in the LiftOffr daily brief.

Cycle	Signal fired	Sell price	Actual top	Subsequent bottom	Drawdown avoided
2013	Pi Cycle cross, Nov 18	~$900	$1,150	$152	83%
2017	Pi Cycle cross, Dec 14	~$17,500	$19,783	$3,122	82%
2021 ①	Pi Cycle cross, Apr 12	~$60,000	$64,863	$29,300	51%
2021 ②	Confluence 3/6, Nov 8	~$66,000	$69,044	$15,742	76%

Member results

What happens when you have
a system instead of a guess.

Real members. Real outcomes. Screenshots are from our private Discord — shared with permission.

member-wins

Tyr July 14, 2025

Followed the cycle signals and positioned into ETH before the July move. Portfolio up $47,970 in one month. The confluence framework is the real deal — I finally had a system instead of a guess.

Marcus_btc April 3, 2025

Been in crypto since 2018, never had a system. First cycle with LiftOffr and I actually knew what the indicators were telling me. Sold 60% of my BTC stack when CBBI hit 0.83. Felt crazy at the time. Looking very smart now.

kyle_stacks March 19, 2025

The daily brief alone is worth $29/mo. I used to spend 2 hours a day doom-scrolling crypto Twitter. Now I read one post at 8am and actually know what's happening. Life-changing for my stress levels tbh.

Results not typical. Individual results vary. Past performance is not indicative of future results. LiftOffr provides educational content only — not financial advice.

Four cycles.
Three perfect calls. One apathy top.
On-chain data doesn't lie.

What the data showed
at every peak.

What selling at the signal
actually meant.

What happens when you have
a system instead of a guess.

Not ready to join yet?
Get the checklist first.

The indicators that called every top
are live today.

Four cycles.Three perfect calls. One apathy top.On-chain data doesn't lie.

What the data showedat every peak.

What selling at the signalactually meant.

What happens when you havea system instead of a guess.

Not ready to join yet?Get the checklist first.

The indicators that called every topare live today.

Four cycles.
Three perfect calls. One apathy top.
On-chain data doesn't lie.

What the data showed
at every peak.

What selling at the signal
actually meant.

What happens when you have
a system instead of a guess.

Not ready to join yet?
Get the checklist first.

The indicators that called every top
are live today.