The proof, four ways — /receipts is the complete one
The full recordall 64 zone changes · you are here Cycle by cycle2013 · 17 · 21 · 25 The methodologywhat the backtest assumes Indicator by indicatorevery reading
Every signal · 2011 → today

Most people show you their wins. Here are all 64.

Every zone crossing the LiftOffr Score has ever produced, with the date and what Bitcoin actually did 30, 90 and 180 days later beside each one. Sep 2011 to Nov 2025, nothing omitted.

Every row here is reproducible. The Score is computed from CBBI's public daily data using the weights published on every indicator page. Pick a date, pull the same free source, run the same weights — you'll get the same number, provided you divide by the weight actually used rather than by 1.00. On dates where CBBI published no reading for one of the nine, that component is left out and the divisor drops to match; Pi Cycle alone is missing on several hundred of the dates in this log. A recompute that always divides by 1.00 will disagree with these rows, and it will be the one that's wrong. The worked arithmetic is on /score.

These are model reconstructions run over past data rather than calls published at the time, and every row is labelled accordingly. Educational output, not financial advice.
Confirmed events
64
7-day zone confirmation
Signals span
14 yrs
Sep 23, 2011 → Nov 30, 2025
Cycle turns covered
4
2013 · 2017 · 2021 · 2025
Score today
loading…
How often it was right about direction
Horizon BTC simply higher Right about direction
+30 days35 of 6421 of 46 · 46%
+90 days35 of 6421 of 46 · 46%
+180 days37 of 6425 of 46 · 54%

35 of 64 is not a hit rate and I am not going to relabel it as one. That left column counts every crossing after which Bitcoin simply rose, and the 64 mix opposing signal types — a rise after an EXIT crossing is a miss, not a hit. The directional column is the honest one: 46% at 30 and 90 days, 54% at 180. None of the three is distinguishable from chance. 21 and 25 out of 46 lie the same distance either side of an even split, so they carry the identical two-sided p-value of 0.66; at this sample size you would need 31 of 46 — 67% — before the result cleared the usual 5% threshold. So the 54% is not the good news it looks like next to the 46%, and I would rather say that than let the longer horizon carry an implication it has not earned. It is the headline on this page rather than a footnote, because a record with the losses taken out is not a record. Here is what it does and does not mean. “Right about direction” scores an EXIT or WARNING crossing as correct if BTC was lower afterwards and an ACCUMULATION crossing as correct if it was higher; the 18 NEUTRAL crossings are excluded because they point nowhere, which leaves 46 of the 64. A rise after an exit signal is a miss, so the raw “BTC was higher” column is not a scoreboard and neither number is a win rate or an accuracy claim.

On the zone names in this log. These 64 rows were generated under the earlier five-band naming, where NEUTRAL covered everything from 30 to 70. The live Score now names six bands — exit 85+, warning 70–85, mid-cycle 50–70, re-accumulation 30–50, accumulation 15–30, deep accumulation below 15 — which are the ones defined on /score and used everywhere else. The band boundaries at 85, 70, 30 and 15 are unchanged, so no crossing in this log moves and no count on this page changes; the only difference is that the old NEUTRAL interval is now split in two at 50. No crossing here sits between 32 and 67, so nothing in the log lands in the part that was split. The rows are left with the names they were recorded under rather than relabelled after the fact. This is a multi-month cycle-zone tool, so a 30-day directional test is a poor proxy for what it is built to do — but it is the test an outsider would run first, so it belongs at the top of the page rather than nowhere on it.

This is the record. What it does not tell you is what you will do when the Score next moves — and deciding that in the moment is the expensive part. The $29 plan is the nine levels I have written down for my own position, plus a worksheet that turns your stack size into your own ladder. 30 days to read it; if it isn’t worth $29 I refund it, no form and no reason needed.

See what’s in the plan — $29, once →

Zone-crossing log (newest first)

A zone model marks the transitions, not the tops. Across fourteen years it produces 64 of them — some resolve within weeks, some take a cycle to play out, and some mark a zone the market then re-tests. That spread is how a zone model behaves by design. Every one is dated below with what Bitcoin did next.

A crossing counts only after the score holds the new zone for 7 straight days — the date shown is the first day of that hold. BTC % is the change from the crossing-day price.

Swipe the table sideways for Score, BTC and the 30 / 90 / 180-day columns
Date
Event
Score
BTC
+30d
+90d
+180d
Nov 30, 2025
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
67.1
$90,608
-2.4%
-26.1%
-19.1%
Oct 21, 2025
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.7
$108,700
-20.0%
-14.9%
-32.0%
Jun 27, 2025
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.4
$107,091
+11.5%
+1.9%
-18.2%
Jun 19, 2025
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
83.5
$104,710
+12.6%
+11.3%
-16.2%
May 08, 2025
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.1
$103,070
+2.5%
+11.6%
-1.7%
Feb 18, 2025
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.5
$95,444
-11.9%
+10.7%
+23.2%
Nov 16, 2024
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.0
$90,568
+16.9%
+7.6%
+14.5%
Oct 17, 2024
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.1
$67,338
+34.5%
+48.8%
+24.3%
Aug 03, 2024
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.0
$60,688
-2.5%
+14.5%
+73.0%
Jul 19, 2024
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.1
$66,756
-11.9%
+0.9%
+50.1%
Jun 24, 2024
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.2
$60,259
+8.5%
+5.5%
+61.1%
May 16, 2024
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.6
$65,269
+1.4%
-9.8%
+34.9%
May 07, 2024
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.3
$62,397
+13.4%
-12.9%
+10.2%
Apr 12, 2024
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.8
$67,098
-8.4%
-14.6%
-9.7%
Mar 04, 2024
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.9
$68,092
-2.9%
-0.4%
-13.4%
Feb 13, 2024
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.8
$49,628
+44.1%
+26.7%
+18.6%
Mar 17, 2023
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.3
$27,451
+10.4%
-6.9%
-4.5%
Jan 14, 2023
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from DEEP ACCUMULATION model backtest
15.2
$21,011
+3.7%
+45.0%
+49.6%
Jun 20, 2022
ENTERED DEEP ACCUMULATION from ACCUMULATION model backtest
14.4
$20,572
+13.2%
-5.6%
-18.5%
May 20, 2022
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
28.8
$29,224
-29.9%
-20.5%
-43.0%
Dec 13, 2021
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.2
$46,785
-6.0%
-19.2%
-39.4%
Nov 17, 2021
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.3
$60,154
-23.0%
-26.0%
-50.3%
Nov 09, 2021
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.8
$67,096
-28.6%
-34.6%
-49.2%
Nov 01, 2021
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.3
$61,092
-6.4%
-37.8%
-38.3%
Oct 19, 2021
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.2
$64,291
-11.7%
-34.3%
-38.2%
Jul 28, 2021
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
71.0
$39,939
+22.8%
+51.2%
-8.2%
Jun 19, 2021
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
68.8
$35,556
-13.1%
+32.8%
+34.1%
May 18, 2021
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
83.5
$42,790
-11.2%
+7.5%
+52.0%
Feb 02, 2021
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.0
$35,596
+36.2%
+60.8%
+12.3%
Jan 21, 2021
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.8
$31,023
+80.1%
+74.1%
-4.0%
Jan 03, 2021
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.6
$33,278
+7.0%
+72.1%
+1.5%
Dec 19, 2020
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
72.0
$23,857
+53.4%
+143.8%
+59.4%
Apr 25, 2020
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.1
$7,538
+18.2%
+26.7%
+72.4%
Mar 12, 2020
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
27.2
$4,959
+38.8%
+99.4%
+103.8%
Jan 03, 2020
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.4
$7,315
+27.7%
-7.1%
+26.3%
Dec 12, 2019
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
29.4
$7,193
+11.7%
+10.4%
+36.0%
May 11, 2019
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.9
$7,325
+9.1%
+61.9%
+25.7%
Apr 03, 2019
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from DEEP ACCUMULATION model backtest
17.0
$4,960
+14.1%
+117.0%
+67.0%
Nov 25, 2018
ENTERED DEEP ACCUMULATION from ACCUMULATION model backtest
14.6
$3,947
-4.7%
+4.1%
+102.4%
Nov 08, 2018
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
29.6
$6,407
-46.8%
-47.4%
-9.1%
Mar 15, 2018
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
68.6
$8,269
-3.2%
-23.7%
-24.1%
Jan 23, 2018
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.0
$10,849
-9.0%
-17.7%
-31.8%
Nov 17, 2017
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
85.5
$7,729
+149.1%
+30.8%
+7.7%
Sep 28, 2017
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.0
$4,188
+37.6%
+267.5%
+87.1%
Sep 20, 2017
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.7
$3,896
+54.0%
+353.1%
+119.1%
Aug 05, 2017
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.4
$3,237
+35.1%
+122.4%
+179.2%
May 28, 2016
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.7
$531
+22.9%
+9.0%
+38.9%
Oct 23, 2015
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from DEEP ACCUMULATION model backtest
15.6
$279
+16.2%
+46.9%
+58.9%
Dec 16, 2014
ENTERED DEEP ACCUMULATION from ACCUMULATION model backtest
13.9
$329
-35.4%
-11.3%
-29.2%
Sep 19, 2014
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
29.1
$394
-1.3%
-20.4%
-34.7%
Feb 11, 2014
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.1
$672
-4.2%
-34.3%
-12.3%
Dec 16, 2013
ENTERED WARNING from EXIT model backtest
84.8
$678
+24.1%
-6.5%
-15.1%
Nov 21, 2013
ENTERED EXIT from WARNING model backtest
86.0
$721
-17.2%
-13.5%
-32.0%
Nov 10, 2013
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
70.0
$328
+198.3%
+106.9%
+38.2%
Apr 13, 2013
ENTERED NEUTRAL from WARNING model backtest
69.8
$98
+20.3%
-7.7%
+29.8%
Apr 02, 2013
ENTERED WARNING from NEUTRAL model backtest
71.3
$117
-8.9%
-29.0%
+8.9%
Jan 21, 2013
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.3
$17
+77.7%
+606.1%
+406.0%
Nov 30, 2012
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
28.9
$13
+6.8%
+165.2%
+929.4%
Aug 03, 2012
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
30.7
$11
-6.3%
-2.8%
+80.8%
Jan 26, 2012
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
28.3
$5
-11.1%
-4.1%
+59.8%
Jan 05, 2012
ENTERED NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATION model backtest
31.1
$7
-14.2%
-28.5%
-6.2%
Dec 19, 2011
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from DEEP ACCUMULATION model backtest
16.1
$4
+67.3%
+49.5%
+82.8%
Oct 17, 2011
ENTERED DEEP ACCUMULATION from ACCUMULATION model backtest
13.1
$3
-1.3%
+173.0%
+92.0%
Sep 23, 2011
ENTERED ACCUMULATION from NEUTRAL model backtest
29.4
$6
-43.4%
-29.8%
-13.4%

The score behind these receipts is live right now.

The LiftOffr Score updates daily from nine on-chain cycle indicators. The course teaches what each zone means and what to do about it — the same framework shown on this page.

Get the plan — $29 once →

One-time payment, no subscription. Or see the live score →

Zone events reconstructed by applying the current LiftOffr Score formula (V7-weighted CBBI components, colintalkscrypto.com data) to historical daily values. The 64 confirmed crossings below span Sep 23, 2011 through Nov 30, 2025; the Score has not crossed a zone boundary since. Backfilled rows are model output computed after the fact, not calls made at the time. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is educational content, not financial advice. Trading carries risk — only invest what you can afford to lose.

Every dated signal on this site is the LiftOffr Score computed over public historical price and on-chain data — a backtest, not a record of trades placed or calls published at the time. Past performance does not predict future results. Torin Christianson is not a registered investment adviser and nothing here is personalised to you. Full record, including every signal that went the wrong way, at /receipts. LiftOffr LLC (Montana). 18+ only. Full income and performance disclaimer at /disclaimer.