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When will Bitcoin bottom?
Last updated August 6, 2026 ·
Updated daily from live cycle data
Nobody knows the date, and anyone who gives you one is guessing.
What can be measured: Bitcoin is 49% below its
October 6, 2025 top and 304 days into this
drawdown. The last three bear markets bottomed 363-410 days after the top, with
drawdowns of 76% to 84%. Applied to this cycle that is a
window of October 2026 to November 2026 — three data points of
arithmetic, not a forecast.
35.3
LiftOffr Score today · 0-100
Every previous Bitcoin bear market, measured
| Cycle | Top date | Top price | Bottom date | Bottom price |
Drawdown | Days |
| 2013 cycle | 2013-11-30 | $1,119 | 2015-01-14 | $176 | -84% | 410 |
| 2017 cycle | 2017-12-17 | $19,250 | 2018-12-15 | $3,185 | -83% | 363 |
| 2021 cycle | 2021-11-10 | $64,756 | 2022-11-21 | $15,778 | -76% | 376 |
Prices are daily closes from the public CBBI price series. Dates are the
daily-close cycle high and low.
What that implies for this cycle — and why it is weak evidence
Run the same arithmetic forward from the October 6, 2025 top:
| Method | Implied bottom | Implied price |
| Shortest previous bear (363 days) | October 4, 2026 | — |
| Average previous bear (383 days) | October 24, 2026 | — |
| Longest previous bear (410 days) | November 20, 2026 | — |
| Shallowest previous drawdown (76%) | — | $30,414 |
| Deepest previous drawdown (84%) | — | $19,587 |
Three cycles is not a sample, and those last two rows are not a price target.
Each of those bears happened in a different market: no ETFs, no institutional allocation,
different halving dynamics, different rate environment. Every drawdown so far has been
shallower than the one before it (84% → 83% →
76%), so applying an old percentage to a new top almost certainly
understates the floor. LiftOffr does not publish price predictions; the rows are there because
leaving the arithmetic out would be the dishonest version. Treat the whole table as a range of
what has happened, never as a schedule of what will.
What actually moves at a bottom
Bottoms are not identified by a date. They are identified by a cluster of indicators reaching
levels they only reach when everyone has given up. The nine components of the LiftOffr Score
are live on the indicators page, each with
what it read at every previous cycle bottom — that table is the honest version of this
question.
The three that have historically moved first at a bottom are the slow, supply-side ones:
the 2-Year MA Multiplier,
Reserve Risk and
NUPL. The momentum indicators confirm
late, which is exactly the wrong order if you are trying to buy.
You don't need the date. You need the levels, written down first.
My Bear Market Buy Plan is the nine-tier ladder I'm executing right now — the exact prices,
what has to be true at each one, and a timestamped receipt every time a tier fires. Written
before the fear, so the decision isn't made during it. $29 once.
Get my plan — $29, once →
Questions
When will Bitcoin bottom?
Nobody knows, and anyone giving you a date is guessing. What can be measured: the three previous bear markets bottomed 363, 376 and 410 days after their cycle top, averaging 383 days. Applied to the October 6, 2025 top, that window runs October 2026 to November 2026. It is arithmetic on three data points, not a forecast.
How far does Bitcoin usually fall in a bear market?
The last three drawdowns from cycle top to cycle bottom were 84%, 83%, 76%, averaging 81%. But each one has been shallower than the last, so the average overstates it. Bitcoin is currently 49% below the October 2025 top.
Has Bitcoin already bottomed?
As of August 6, 2026 the LiftOffr Score reads 35.3 out of 100. Past cycle bottoms printed composite readings in the low teens. The live number and the full history are on the cycle page — it is a measurement, not a call.
What should I do while waiting?
That is your decision and this page is not advice. What I do personally is published: a written ladder of buy levels set before the fear arrives, and a receipt every time one fires. The alternative — deciding while it is happening — is what cost me $30,000 in 2022.
Read this first. Everything on this page is educational market information, not
financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I am not a registered
investment adviser. Indicator readings are historical measurements, not predictions — every one
of them has been wrong before, which is why each page here has a section saying exactly how.
Bitcoin can fall further than you expect and stay there longer than you expect. Do your own
research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
© 2026 LiftOffr · Educational content only. Not financial advice.
Indicator data derived from the public CBBI dataset.