Bitcoin Reserve Risk today
Last updated August 6, 2026 ·
Also called HODL bank / opportunity cost · Weighted 5% of the LiftOffr Score
19
Reserve Risk · 0-100 normalised
Bitcoin $64,212 · Today's reading sits 18% of the way from the average cycle-bottom reading (2) to the average cycle-top reading (96).
Reserve Risk weighs the confidence of long-term holders against the price they are being offered to sell. Low readings mean conviction is high and price is low — historically the best risk-reward accumulation windows. High readings mean holders are being paid a lot to give up their coins.
What it actually measures
The ratio of holder conviction to the reward for abandoning it.
How it is calculated
Price ÷ HODL bank (cumulative coin-days destroyed opportunity cost), normalised 0-100.
What it read at every cycle top and bottom
This is the table that does not exist anywhere else. Every value is the Reserve Risk reading
on the day of that cycle turn, pulled from the same daily series the number above comes from.
| Cycle turn | Date | BTC close | Reserve Risk (0-100) |
|---|
| 2013 top | 2013-11-30 | $1,119 | 96 |
| 2017 top | 2017-12-17 | $19,250 | 100 |
| 2021 top | 2021-11-10 | $64,756 | 91 |
| 2025 top | 2025-10-06 | $124,824 | 99 |
| 2015 bottom | 2015-01-14 | $176 | 0 |
| 2018 bottom | 2018-12-15 | $3,185 | 7 |
| 2022 bottom | 2022-11-21 | $15,778 | 0 |
Readings are normalised 0-100. Bitcoin closes are the same day's price from the
source dataset. Cycle turn dates are daily-close highs and lows.
Average reading at a cycle top: 96.
Average at a cycle bottom: 2.
The weakest top signal it ever gave was the 2021 top at 91;
the highest it ever read at a bottom was the 2018 bottom at 7.
Where it has been wrong
It depends on coin-day metrics that exchange and ETF custody distort — coins moving between custodial wallets look like holders capitulating when nothing changed hands economically. Its signal has been noisier since 2024 for exactly that reason.
This section is on every indicator page here on purpose. An indicator sold as infallible is
being sold, not explained — and the gap between "it called three tops" and "it will call the
next one" is where people lose money.
The other eight
No single indicator survives contact with a real cycle. These are the other components of the
LiftOffr Score, live right now:
The reading tells you where. It doesn't tell you what to do.
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Questions
What is the Reserve Risk reading today?
As of August 6, 2026 the Reserve Risk reads 19 out of 100 on the normalised scale LiftOffr uses, with Bitcoin at $64,212. The number on this page updates daily.
What did the Reserve Risk read at the last Bitcoin top?
At the October 2025 top it read 99. Every cycle top and bottom since 2013 is in the table on this page, taken from the same daily series.
Has the Reserve Risk ever been wrong?
It depends on coin-day metrics that exchange and ETF custody distort — coins moving between custodial wallets look like holders capitulating when nothing changed hands economically. Its signal has been noisier since 2024 for exactly that reason.
Is the Reserve Risk enough on its own?
No. Every indicator on this site has a failure mode, which is why LiftOffr weights nine of them into one score rather than trusting any single one. The live composite is at liftoffr.com/cycle.
Read this first. Everything on this page is educational market information, not
financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I am not a registered
investment adviser. Indicator readings are historical measurements, not predictions — every one
of them has been wrong before, which is why each page here has a section saying exactly how.
Bitcoin can fall further than you expect and stay there longer than you expect. Do your own
research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
© 2026 LiftOffr · Educational content only. Not financial advice.
Indicator data derived from the public CBBI dataset.