Bitcoin rainbow chart band today
Last updated Loading source date ·
Also called Trolololo / rainbow chart · Weighted 15% of the LiftOffr Score
—
Logarithmic Regression Band · 0-100 normalised
Loading the latest available source data.
The rainbow chart is a logarithmic regression fitted to Bitcoin's whole price history, with coloured bands above and below the fit. Where price sits inside those bands is the reading: high in the band has meant euphoria, low in the band has meant the parts of the cycle nobody wants to talk about.
What it actually measures
How stretched price is versus its own long-run log-growth trend.
How it is calculated
Price versus a log regression of price against time, normalised 0-100.
Want the long-form explainer rather than the live number? Read the full Logarithmic Regression Band breakdown →
What it read at every cycle top and bottom
This is the table that does not exist anywhere else. Every value is the Logarithmic Regression Band reading
on the day of that cycle turn, pulled from the same daily series the number above comes from.
| Cycle turn | Date | BTC close | Logarithmic Regression Band (0-100) |
|---|
| 2013 top | 2013-11-30 | $1,119 | 100 |
| 2017 top | 2017-12-17 | $19,250 | 100 |
| 2021 top | 2021-11-10 | $64,756 | 100 |
| 2025 top | 2025-10-06 | $124,824 | 86 |
| 2015 bottom | 2015-01-14 | $176 | 0 |
| 2018 bottom | 2018-12-15 | $3,185 | 4 |
| 2022 bottom | 2022-11-21 | $15,778 | 0 |
Readings are normalised 0-100. Bitcoin closes are the same day's price from the
source dataset. Cycle turn dates are daily-close highs and lows.
Average reading at a cycle top: 96.
Average at a cycle bottom: 1.
The weakest top signal it ever gave was the 2025 top at 86;
the highest it ever read at a bottom was the 2018 bottom at 4.
Where it has been wrong
The regression is refitted as new data arrives, so the bands quietly move down over time. A reading from 2017 is not measured against the same curve as a reading today, and back-fitted curves always look more accurate than they were live.
This section is on every indicator page here on purpose. An indicator sold as infallible is
being sold, not explained — and the gap between "it called three tops" and "it will call the
next one" is where people lose money.
The other eight
No single indicator survives contact with a real cycle. These are the other components of the
LiftOffr Score, live right now:
The reading tells you where. It doesn't tell you what to do.
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Questions
What is the Logarithmic Regression Band reading today?
The reading panel shows the latest available response and its source date. If the component is unavailable, it is labeled unavailable. Historical tables are dated examples.
What did the Logarithmic Regression Band read at the last Bitcoin top?
At the October 2025 top it read 86. Every cycle top and bottom since 2013 is in the table on this page, taken from the same daily series.
Has the Logarithmic Regression Band ever been wrong?
The regression is refitted as new data arrives, so the bands quietly move down over time. A reading from 2017 is not measured against the same curve as a reading today, and back-fitted curves always look more accurate than they were live.
Is the Logarithmic Regression Band enough on its own?
No. Every indicator on this site has a failure mode, which is why LiftOffr weights nine of them into one score rather than trusting any single one. The live composite is at liftoffr.com/cycle.
Read this first. Everything on this page is educational market information, not
financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I am not a registered
investment adviser. Indicator readings are historical measurements, not predictions — every one
of them has been wrong before, which is why each page here has a section saying exactly how.
Bitcoin can fall further than you expect and stay there longer than you expect. Do your own
research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.
© 2026 LiftOffr · Educational content only. Not financial advice.
Indicator data derived from the public CBBI dataset.
Every dated signal on this site is the LiftOffr Score computed over public historical price and on-chain data — a backtest, not a record of trades placed or calls published at the time. Past performance does not predict future results. Torin Christianson is not a registered investment adviser and nothing here is personalised to you. Full record, including every signal that went the wrong way, at
/receipts. LiftOffr LLC (Montana).
18+ only. Full income and performance disclaimer at
/disclaimer.