RHODL Ratio today

What it actually measures

Whether the coins changing hands are new speculative money or long-held supply waking up. Tops happen when both are true at once.

How it is calculated

The ratio of the 1-week to 1-2 year Realized Cap HODL Wave bands, adjusted by market age in days. LiftOffr uses the source’s normalized reading, not the raw ratio.

No standalone write-up for RHODL Ratio yet — the closest long-form read is the CBBI composite explainer, which covers how these normalised readings are built. For the wider framework, start with how to identify a Bitcoin cycle top.

What it read at every cycle top and bottom

This is the table that does not exist anywhere else. Every value is the RHODL Ratio reading on the day of that cycle turn, pulled from the same daily series the number above comes from.

Readings are normalised 0-100. Bitcoin closes are the same day's price from the source dataset. Cycle turn dates are daily-close highs and lows.

Average reading at a cycle top: 95. Average at a cycle bottom: 2. The weakest top signal it ever gave was the 2025 top at 89; the highest it ever read at a bottom was the 2022 bottom at 3.

Where it has been wrong

A low normalized reading can persist while price continues falling. Neither a high nor a low reading establishes that a turning point has occurred.

This section is on every indicator page here on purpose. An indicator sold as infallible is being sold, not explained — and the gap between "it called three tops" and "it will call the next one" is where people lose money.

The other eight

No single indicator survives contact with a real cycle. These are the other components of the LiftOffr Score, live right now:

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